Epsilon Mu

Week 1

Written by AI and published without review, so it may contain errors. The scores and records are computed from league data; the judgements are not facts.

HasBas opened the season with the league's top score, 152.50, and four teams banked a perfect 2-0 — while austingulley lost a head-to-head by 0.40 and started 0-2.

The week at a glance

The week 1 median was 137.11. This league runs league average match, so every team plays two games a week: one against its opponent, one against that median. Clear it and you bank a second win. Nobody landed on it exactly — I Love Josh Allen cleared it by 0.25, BrendanPhillips missed by 0.25.

2-0: HasBas, The Cold Seats, Tetucky Odunze, 1-800-FLOWERS. 1-1: I Love Josh Allen (lost the matchup, beat the median), BrendanPhillips (won the matchup, missed the median). 0-2: austingulley, The Real Slim Brady, Denton Daemons, Shmurdarer's Row.

Three numbers that defined the week:

• 152.50 — HasBas's league-high score, and the only total above 152.
• 42.26 — points Tetucky Odunze left on an available bench, the worst in the league. They won anyway.
• 0.40 — the margin that separated BrendanPhillips's 1-1 from austingulley's 0-2. Same points, opposite weeks.

Optimal lineups count only players who could actually have been started that week. Week 1 had no byes; four rosters had a player ruled out and one had a player listed doubtful, and those are excluded.

Top half

Split by week 1 score, not by standings.

HasBas — 152.50 (2-0)

The week. League-high 152.50 and a 18.54-point win over The Real Slim Brady. Justin Jefferson led the way with 31.2 and Trevor Lawrence added 26.1 from the QB slot, with Jonathan Taylor at 25.1 behind them. The sore spot was Jaylen Waddle at 1.2 in a starting flex. D.J. Moore scored 21.0 on the bench and Devaughn Vele 19.9 — both available, neither in the lineup.

The season. 2-0, 152.50 for, 133.96 against. Lineup efficiency of 82.9%, the second-lowest in the league, which is a strange thing to say about the week's top scorer.

Outlook. The optimal lineup was 184.00 — the highest ceiling anyone posted. A roster this deep will win plenty of weeks on raw talent, but 31.50 points of available bench is the kind of margin that decides a playoff seed in November.

Moves. Claimed Kendre Miller for $7 on the Tuesday waiver run, dropping Devin Neal.

The Cold Seats — 151.86 (2-0)

The week. 151.86 and a comfortable 25.74 over Denton Daemons. Derrick Henry went for 35.3 and Chris Olave 28.2; Lamar Jackson chipped in 24.96. DK Metcalf's 8.0 was the low mark among the starters. Dallas Goedert put up 23.7 on the bench while Travis Kelce started and scored 10.1 — a 13.6-point swing at one position.

The season. 2-0, 151.86 for, 126.12 against, 85.5% efficient. The lowest points-against of any 2-0 team.

Outlook. Henry and Jackson sharing a bye week is the obvious structural risk, but the tight end room is genuinely two-deep and the receiver corps goes five or six names before it thins. This looks like a contender.

Moves. Acquired Jakobi Meyers, Jalen Nailor and a 2027 third from I Love Josh Allen the day before the opener. Added George Holani for $0 on Tuesday waivers, and Chigoziem Okonkwo for $1 the week before.

Tetucky Odunze — 148.80 (2-0)

The week. 148.80, enough to beat I Love Josh Allen by 11.44. David Montgomery's 28.9 and Trey McBride's 24.5 carried it, and Josh Downs at 5.7 was the weakest starter. This is also the week's bench story: Isaiah Likely scored 27.8 and Patrick Mahomes 22.66 while Cam Ward started at QB for 11.7. All available.

The season. 2-0, 148.80 for, 137.36 against, 77.9% efficiency — the lowest in the league. TreVeyon Henderson was ruled out and is correctly excluded from that figure.

Outlook. The optimal was 191.06, nearly 20 points clear of anyone else's ceiling. Starting Mahomes over Ward is the single highest-leverage change available to any manager in the league right now.

Moves. None.

1-800-FLOWERS — 146.02 (2-0)

The week. 146.02 and a 29.36-point win over Shmurdarer's Row. Ashton Jeanty (32.7) and D'Andre Swift (32.4) both cleared 32, with Zay Flowers at 26.0. Harold Fannin's 4.1 at tight end was the drag. Jaxson Dart scored 26.6 on the bench against Drake Maye's 12.82 in the lineup, and Breece Hall added 19.8 in street clothes' worth of bench points.

The season. 2-0, 146.02 for, 116.66 against — the lowest points-against in the league. 83.2% efficient. Eli Stowers was ruled out and excluded.

Outlook. The running back room is the best in the league on paper and it is not close: Jeanty, Swift, Hall, Stevenson, Jones, plus names that would start elsewhere. The tight end slot is the one real hole.

Moves. None in week 1.

I Love Josh Allen — 137.36 (1-1)

The week. 137.36, which cleared the median by 0.25 and still lost by 11.44 to the week's third-highest score. Caleb Williams went for 37.26 and Jalen Coker 33.8. J.K. Dobbins at 3.6 was the low starter. Matthew Golden, acquired the day before the opener, started and scored 15.5.

The season. 1-1, 137.36 for, 148.80 against. Lineup efficiency of 94.9% — the best in the league. Jalen McMillan was listed doubtful and is excluded; only 7.40 points were genuinely left behind.

Outlook. This is the most fairly managed roster of the week. The team is thin behind its top names — Williams and Coker accounted for over half the score — and the trade with The Cold Seats signals a roster being reshaped rather than defended. Judge this one on process, not on the 1-1.

Moves. Sent Jakobi Meyers, Jalen Nailor and a 2027 third to The Cold Seats for Jalen McMillan and Matthew Golden. Added Roschon Johnson for $1 and Sean Tucker for $3.

Bottom half

BrendanPhillips — 136.86 (1-1)

The week. 136.86, a 0.40-point win over austingulley and a 0.25-point miss against the median. Jahmyr Gibbs led with 33.6, Jaxon Smith-Njigba added 26.2, and Javonte Williams 24.2. Colston Loveland started at tight end and scored 0.0; Brenton Strange was on the bench with 10.3.

The season. 1-1, 136.86 for, 136.46 against, 88.3% efficient. No availability problems — every bench player was startable.

Outlook. The closest win in the league and the narrowest median miss, in the same week. A tight end who scores anything at all turns this into a 2-0. The back room — Gibbs, Williams, Monangai — is a real asset.

Moves. None.

austingulley — 136.46 (0-2)

The week. 136.46 and nothing to show for it: a 0.40 loss and a median miss of 0.65. Josh Allen's 35.66 and Christian Watson's 32.7 did the work. Christian McCaffrey at 13.8 and Saquon Barkley at 9.0 were quiet in the same week. Deebo Samuel scored 18.0 on the bench; George Kittle started elsewhere in the league and Mark Andrews's 8.9 held the tight end slot here.

The season. 0-2, 136.46 for, 136.86 against, 89.9% efficient. Seventh in scoring, last in results.

Outlook. This is the week's clearest case of the numbers and the record disagreeing. The 2025 best-record team scored within 0.40 of a win and within 0.65 of the median and banked neither. Nothing here needs fixing except luck; the roster that produced 1,917 points last season is intact.

Moves. None in week 1.

The Real Slim Brady — 133.96 (0-2)

The week. 133.96, which would have beaten five teams and instead ran into the week's top score. Kenneth Walker III went for 34.1 and Chuba Hubbard 23.7. Ja'Marr Chase, the startup 1.01, managed 3.2. Dontayvion Wicks scored 15.3 on the bench. Brock Bowers was ruled out and is excluded from the bench math.

The season. 0-2, 133.96 for, 152.50 against — the highest points-against in the league. 89.9% efficient, which is a solid number.

Outlook. Coming off a 3-25 season, the shape of this roster is better than the result suggests: the running back group produced 72.6 points from three starters. Chase will not score 3.2 again. The schedule did the damage here, not the lineup.

Moves. Added Charlie Kolar for $6. A $6 claim on Chigoziem Okonkwo failed — Okonkwo had been dropped from this roster on August 31 and was claimed by The Cold Seats for $1 earlier the same day.

Denton Daemons — 126.12 (0-2)

The week. 126.12 and a 25.74-point loss to The Cold Seats. Bijan Robinson's 31.3 and Jalen Hurts's 24.72 were the only starters above 17. A.J. Brown (5.6), Davante Adams (5.6) and Jake Ferguson (2.6) combined for 13.8 across three starting slots. Tyler Shough scored 25.2 on the bench and Brock Purdy 22.1, but flex is RB/WR/TE here, so a second quarterback cannot be started — the only available change was Shough over Hurts at the QB slot, worth 0.48.

The season. 0-2, 126.12 for, 151.86 against, 90.6% efficiency — the second-best in the league. Only 13.08 points were genuinely available.

Outlook. The defending champion opened with its worst-case version of a normal week: three established receivers all quiet at once. The efficiency number says this was a scoring problem, not a management problem. Three quarterbacks on one roster is the asset to convert.

Moves. None in week 1.

Shmurdarer's Row — 116.66 (0-2)

The week. 116.66, last in the league, and a 29.36-point loss. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 28.7 was the lone big number; CeeDee Lamb added 15.4. Kyle Pitts started at tight end and scored 0.0 while Michael Mayer — claimed for $55 that same week — sat on the bench with 9.2. Joe Burrow's 15.16 trailed both Jared Goff (16.44) and Dak Prescott (15.4) on the bench. Malik Davis was ruled out and is excluded.

The season. 0-2, 116.66 for, 146.02 against, 88.4% efficient. The optimal lineup was 131.94, the lowest ceiling in the league this week.

Outlook. The low ceiling is the real finding, not the low score: even a perfect lineup loses this matchup. The 2026 rookie 1.01 Jeremiyah Love started and scored 13.0, which is a fine week one for a rookie back. This is the most active roster in the league — six moves in the week-1 window — and that churn is a strategy, not panic.

Moves. The busiest wire in the league: Michael Mayer for $55 (dropping Evan Engram), Emari Demercado for $9, Mike Gesicki for $8, Kalif Raymond for $8, plus drops of Tyreek Hill, Sean Tucker and Malik Davis.

The transaction wire

Sleeper files every offseason move into week 1, so what follows is the in-season window only — September 8 onward, from the day before the opener through the Tuesday waiver run that closed the week. The offseason trades sitting in the same bucket belong in the Trade Ledger, not here.

Two things worth noting. The Real Slim Brady's $6 claim on Chigoziem Okonkwo failed because The Cold Seats had already taken him for $1 hours earlier — and Okonkwo had been dropped from the Slim Brady roster on August 31. A $6 bid to undo a nine-day-old drop, beaten by a dollar.

The other is Sean Tucker, who moved twice in two days: dropped by Shmurdarer's Row on September 12 in the Demercado claim, picked up by I Love Josh Allen for $3 on September 13.

Shmurdarer's Row spent $80 of recorded bids in this window, by far the most, with $55 of it on Michael Mayer — who then sat on the bench behind a Kyle Pitts zero. Season FAAB balances are not reconstructed here: Sleeper's week-1 bucket carries offseason bids from a budget that has since reset, and the reset point is not visible in the transaction log.

Looking ahead

One week is one week, and four of the ten teams are separated by 3.4 points. Grouped by what they actually need rather than by record:

Need nothing but patience. austingulley, BrendanPhillips, The Real Slim Brady. All three scored within 2.90 of each other, all three posted efficiency near or above 88%, and between them they have one win in six results. Nothing structural is wrong.

Need to set a better lineup. Tetucky Odunze, HasBas, The Cold Seats. The three deepest rosters in the league left 99.56 points on available benches between them and went 6-0 anyway. That stops working in a tighter week.

Need the roster to catch up to the ambition. Shmurdarer's Row. Lowest ceiling in the league at 131.94 optimal, and the only team whose perfect lineup still loses its matchup. The $55 on a tight end and the volume of claims say this is understood.

Need a quarterback trade to happen. Denton Daemons. Hurts, Shough and Purdy on one roster in a one-QB league is 47.3 points of bench a week that cannot be started. Three starting receivers scoring 13.8 combined is the problem that trade could solve.

Fine as is. 1-800-FLOWERS and I Love Josh Allen — the first because the running back room is the league's best, the second because 94.9% efficiency on a thin roster is the right way to lose.

Deadline picture

The trade deadline is week 11, which is a long way off, but the shapes are already visible. Buyers: The Cold Seats and 1-800-FLOWERS, both 2-0 with depth to convert. Sellers: Shmurdarer's Row, already trading veterans for picks in August and churning the wire. Undecided: everyone else, which is where everyone should be after one week.

One roster to flag: austingulley, 0-2 with the seventh-best score and the defending best record. If that record is still underwater in week 6, this is the team whose roster most outruns its results — and the one most likely to be miscast as a seller.

Published 2026-10-13. The figures here are as they stood that day; the live pages recompute independently. All recaps