Epsilon Mu

Week 4

Written by AI and published without review, so it may contain errors. The scores and records are computed from league data; the judgements are not facts.

The Cold Seats lost their first result of the season without losing a game — 131.28 beat HasBas and missed the median by 2.54. Tetucky Odunze posted the week's top score after three weeks in the cellar, two trades reshaped three rosters, and HasBas left 57.10 points on the bench, the worst figure of the season.

The week at a glance

The week 4 median was 133.82, almost exactly where it sat in week 3. Every team plays twice — its opponent and that median — and this week the median did the interesting work: The Cold Seats won their game and lost to the median for the first time all season, while Shmurdarer's Row lost its game and beat the median.

2-0: Tetucky Odunze, Denton Daemons, 1-800-FLOWERS, BrendanPhillips. 1-1: Shmurdarer's Row (lost by 13.42, beat the median), The Cold Seats (won by 29.10, missed the median by 2.54). 0-2: austingulley, The Real Slim Brady, HasBas, I Love Josh Allen.

Three numbers that defined the week:

• 57.10 — points HasBas left on an available bench, the worst single-week figure of the season. Their optimal lineup, 159.28, would have been the week's best score.
• 45.20 — Tetairoa McMillan for Tetucky Odunze, the highest individual total of the season.
• 2.54 — how far The Cold Seats fell under the median, costing them the first result they have dropped all year.

Six teams sit between 4-4 and 5-3. PF, PA and efficiency are cumulative through four weeks; optimal and left-on-bench are week 4 only. No byes yet — they begin in week 5. Eight rosters had a player ruled out, and those are excluded from the bench math.

Top half

Split by week 4 score, not by standings.

Tetucky Odunze — 150.80 (2-0)

The week. The week's top score, 150.80, and a 13.42 win. Tetairoa McMillan went for 45.20 — the highest individual total of the season — and Nico Collins added 30.8 after two weeks of 0.0 and an injury absence. Chase Brown contributed 19.1. David Montgomery's 4.3 was the fourth straight quiet week from a back who opened with 28.9.

The season. 4-4, 491.12 for, 556.52 against. Week 4 efficiency of 77.2% with 44.66 left on the bench — the third-worst figure of the week, and an echo of week 1's 42.26.

Outlook. Back to .500 from 2-4 after the two highest-scoring weeks this roster has had. The optimal was 195.46, the highest ceiling anyone has posted all season. Romeo Doubs (23.8), Rome Odunze (15.4) and Khalil Shakir (13.2) were all available against Josh Downs's 4.6 and Montgomery's 4.3. Bryce Young's 21.46 is a quarterback behind Mahomes and not startable, so ignore that one.

Moves. None.

Denton Daemons — 146.32 (2-0)

The week. 146.32 and a 29.70-point win. Kyren Williams went for 36.7 and Bijan Robinson 27.7 — the running backs carried it. Sam LaPorta added 22.4 and Brock Purdy 19.62. Davante Adams fell to 7.2 after 39.5 and 20.7.

The season. 5-3, 573.88 for, 571.50 against. Week 4 efficiency of 90.1%, the best in the league, with only 16.00 available on the bench. Second in points scored.

Outlook. Four weeks ago this was a 1-3 team with the worst points-against in the league. It is now 5-3, second in scoring, and the points-against has nearly evened out. Three straight weeks above 90% efficiency since the Hurts trade cleared the quarterback room. Michael Mayer's 16.2 on the bench, picked up free three days earlier, was the only real miss.

Moves. Added Michael Mayer off free agency — the tight end Shmurdarer's Row paid $55 for in week 1 and dropped in week 3.

Shmurdarer's Row — 137.38 (1-1)

The week. 137.38, a 13.42 loss, and a median win. CeeDee Lamb went for 41.3 and Malik Nabers 23.2. Garrett Wilson fell to 5.7 after 26.7, and Jeremiyah Love managed 6.5. Darren Waller started at tight end for 6.6 while Mike Gesicki (13.0) and Tyler Higbee (11.7) sat.

The season. 3-5, 525.34 for, 553.30 against. Week 4 efficiency of 77.3% with 40.44 left on the bench. The four-week total is 135.48 points left behind — second-worst in the league.

Outlook. Joe Burrow's 25.72 against Jared Goff's 20.48 was a genuine 5.24 at quarterback, and Carnell Tate's 21.5 was available. But the tight end carousel keeps producing the same result: five tight ends on the roster, and the one who started is never the one who scores. Sixth in scoring, eighth in record — the gap has been there all season.

Moves. Added Austin Ekeler for $4, dropping Travis Hunter.

1-800-FLOWERS — 136.58 (2-0)

The week. 136.58 and a 7.56 win over austingulley. Zay Flowers led with 25.8 and Ashton Jeanty finally broke 18. Six starters cleared 11. Breece Hall, Rico Dowdle and Zach Charbonnet were all ruled out, which thinned the backfield considerably and is excluded from the bench math.

The season. 5-3, 498.68 for, 474.44 against. 84.2% efficient. From 2-2 to 5-3 in two weeks, with the fewest points scored of any team above .500.

Outlook. Drake Maye's 27.16 on the bench against Jordan Love's 14.08 in the lineup is the one that stings — 13.08 points at quarterback, in a game won by 7.56. Still, this is a team winning while its best unit is injured and underperforming. The running back room has produced 42.8 from its three starters this week; when that returns, the record should hold.

Moves. None.

BrendanPhillips — 136.36 (2-0)

The week. 136.36 and a 51.46-point win. Javonte Williams went for 31.3 and Kyle Monangai 28.0 — the depth backs outscored Jahmyr Gibbs's 17.7. Colston Loveland, who scored 0.0 and 1.3 in earlier weeks, posted 11.7. Jayden Daniels was ruled out again, so Bo Nix starting is not a choice.

The season. 5-3, 548.26 for, 493.52 against, 81.1% efficient. Third in the league in points scored, and 5-3 without ever posting the week's top score.

Outlook. Keon Coleman's 23.6 and Brenton Strange's 16.5 on the bench cost 31.80, the first week this team has left real points behind after 93.6% and 83.9% efficiency. The Jaylen Wright claim at $20 produced 0.7. But winning by fifty while your best player has a quiet week is the mark of a roster that has gotten deeper.

Moves. None.

Bottom half

The Cold Seats — 131.28 (1-1)

The week. 131.28, a 29.10-point win over HasBas, and the first median loss of the season — by 2.54. Tee Higgins led with 26.7 and Chris Olave added 19.6 in what turned out to be his last game for this roster. The tight end slots were the problem: Travis Kelce 3.5 and Dalton Kincaid 1.7, with T.J. Hockenson's 24.9 on the bench.

The season. 7-1, 581.18 for, 389.96 against. The points-against is still 84.48 better than anyone else's. Week 4 efficiency of 74.0%, the worst this team has posted, with 46.10 left behind.

Outlook. The first dropped result of the year, and it came from a lineup rather than an opponent. Hockenson (24.9) and Alvin Kamara (22.8) were both available; starting Kincaid — acquired two days earlier — for 1.7 over Hockenson cost 23.2 on its own. Still the best team in the league by a distance, but this is the first week the margin came from somewhere other than execution.

Moves. Two trades. Acquired Dalton Kincaid from I Love Josh Allen for Denzel Boston, then acquired Rashee Rice and Kyler Murray from The Real Slim Brady for Chris Olave. Also added Demario Douglas, dropping Joe Mixon.

austingulley — 129.02 (0-2)

The week. 129.02 and a 7.56 loss, with a median miss of 4.80. Puka Nacua returned from a doubtful tag to lead the team with 27.7. Josh Allen managed 19.52, his quietest week. Saquon Barkley's 2.0 was the fourth single-digit week from a back who has now scored 9.0, 3.0, 9.0 and 2.0.

The season. 4-4, 551.46 for, 487.50 against, 83.9% efficient. Fourth in points scored, and 0-2 in a week where 4.80 more points would have made it 1-1.

Outlook. Deebo Samuel's 18.0 and Mark Andrews's 13.7 were both available against Christian Watson's 7.7 and Barkley's 2.0 — 24.80 left behind in a game lost by 7.56. Twice now this season austingulley has gone 0-2 in a week it could have split with better flex calls. The roster is fine; the margins keep going the wrong way.

Moves. None.

The Real Slim Brady — 116.62 (0-2)

The week. 116.62 and a 29.70-point loss. Kenneth Walker III (30.9) and Chuba Hubbard (25.9) were excellent and nothing else was: Ja'Marr Chase managed 5.7, Emeka Egbuka 3.3, and Rashee Rice 0.0 in his last week on the roster. DeVonta Smith and Terrance Ferguson were both ruled out.

The season. 4-4, 543.98 for, 512.28 against, 82.5% efficient. Fifth in scoring after being second a week ago.

Outlook. The optimal was 141.42 — even a perfect lineup loses this one by five. The receiver room was the whole problem: four starting receivers combined for 13.8 with Smith unavailable. Then the trade sent Rice out and brought Olave in, which addresses exactly that. Jalen Hurts has now scored 13.62, 13.52 across two weeks since the trade and is being outscored by the quarterback who left.

Moves. Busy week. Traded Rashee Rice and Kyler Murray to The Cold Seats for Chris Olave. Claimed Roman Wilson for $35, dropping MarShawn Lloyd; added Jacoby Brissett for $7 and Will Shipley for $11; dropped Jack Bech.

HasBas — 102.18 (0-2)

The week. 102.18 and a 29.10-point loss. Jonathan Taylor's 22.7 and Quinshon Judkins's 21.6 led it. Ladd McConkey started and scored 0.0, Parker Washington 2.0, D.J. Moore 2.7. Justin Jefferson and Caleb Douglas were both ruled out and are excluded.

The season. 2-6, 446.52 for, 539.16 against. Week 4 efficiency of 64.2% — the worst single-week figure any team has posted this season — with 57.10 left on an available bench. The four-week total is 156.26, which is 20 points clear of the next-worst team.

Outlook. This is the recap's hardest paragraph to write kindly, so here is the fact plainly: the optimal lineup was 159.28, which would have been the highest score in the league this week and a comfortable 2-0. C.J. Stroud's 23.08 outscored Trevor Lawrence from the bench for the second time in four weeks. Devaughn Vele (17.4), Ollie Gordon II (18.0) and Isaac TeSlaa (13.5) were all available. The roster is not the problem and never has been — four weeks of ceilings at 184.00, 141.52, 117.98 and 159.28 say this is a team that should be contending.

Moves. Added Isaiah Davis off free agency. A $13 claim on Roman Wilson failed — The Real Slim Brady had taken him for $35 three days earlier.

I Love Josh Allen — 84.90 (0-2)

The week. 84.90 and a 51.46-point loss. Emanuel Wilson led with 27.0 and RJ Harvey added 19.3 — both waiver-era backs. Troy Franklin and Elijah Arroyo started and scored 0.0 apiece. Caleb Williams, Adonai Mitchell and Jadarian Price were all ruled out, which is why Malik Willis started at quarterback for 2.5.

The season. 1-7, 377.18 for, 559.42 against. 71.2% efficient, with 34.32 left on the bench — mostly Brian Robinson's 25.7.

Outlook. The optimal was 119.22, which would still have lost by 17. Three quarterbacks, two receivers and a back unavailable in one week is not a lineup anyone could fix. Dalton Kincaid, the one established starter left, was traded out mid-week. This roster is now almost entirely young receivers and waiver backs, which is what a committed rebuild looks like at its lowest point. The 1-7 is the price, and it was always going to be paid this season rather than next.

Moves. Traded Dalton Kincaid to The Cold Seats for Denzel Boston. Added Konata Mumpfield off free agency.

The transaction wire

The busiest week of the season: two trades and thirteen moves in all. Note that week 4's games ran October 1–5, so everything dated October 6 landed after the final whistle.

The Olave trade. The Real Slim Brady sent Rashee Rice and Kyler Murray to The Cold Seats for Chris Olave. The logic is clean on both sides: The Real Slim Brady had just watched four starting receivers produce 13.8 points, and The Cold Seats were carrying Lamar Jackson with Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield behind him — Murray is a third-string quarterback going to a roster that cannot start him. The price for the league's best team to add a receiver was a back-up quarterback and a receiver who scored 0.0.

The Kincaid trade. I Love Josh Allen sent Dalton Kincaid to The Cold Seats for Denzel Boston on October 2. Both players still scored for The Cold Seats in week 4 — Kincaid 1.7 as a starter, Boston 12.9 — with Boston first appearing in the I Love Josh Allen lineup the following week. For I Love Josh Allen this is the rebuild continuing: the last established starter at tight end out, a rookie receiver in. For The Cold Seats it was a tight end who scored 1.7 while T.J. Hockenson put up 24.9 on their bench.

The Mayer thread, concluded. Michael Mayer cost Shmurdarer's Row $55 in week 1, never started a game there, was dropped in week 3, and was picked up free by Denton Daemons on October 2. He scored 16.2 in week 4 — on Denton's bench.

The late bid, again. HasBas bid $13 on Roman Wilson on October 6. The Real Slim Brady had claimed him for $35 three days earlier. That is the third time this season a team has bid on a player already gone — The Real Slim Brady twice in weeks 1 and 3, HasBas now.

Looking ahead

Four weeks down. Six teams sit between 4-4 and 5-3, one team is running away with it, and two are out of sight at the bottom. Byes begin in week 5, which will change how these lineups get set. Grouped by what they need:

Need to keep doing it. The Cold Seats, 7-1 with a points-against 84.48 better than anyone else's. The first dropped result came from a tight end decision, not from being outplayed.

Need nothing but the schedule they already have. Denton Daemons and 1-800-FLOWERS, both 5-3 and both arriving there by different routes — Denton on the league's second-best scoring and three straight weeks above 90% efficiency, 1-800-FLOWERS on the fewest points of any team above .500. One is sustainable, one is not.

Need a flex decision to go right. austingulley and The Real Slim Brady, both 4-4. austingulley has now twice gone 0-2 in a week where 5 more points would have split it. The Real Slim Brady just traded for the receiver that fixes the actual hole.

Need to set the lineup. HasBas above all — 2-6 with a 159.28 optimal that would have won the week outright, and 156.26 points left behind across four weeks. Also Tetucky Odunze, 4-4 with the season's highest ceiling at 195.46, and Shmurdarer's Row, 3-5 and sixth in scoring. These three have the largest gap in the league between what their rosters can do and what their records say.

Need next year. I Love Josh Allen at 1-7, with six players unavailable in one week and the last established starter traded out.

Deadline picture

The deadline is week 11, seven weeks out, and the first real trades have already happened. Buyers: The Cold Seats, who have now made two trades in five days and given up only spare parts, and The Real Slim Brady, who has paid for a starter. Sellers: I Love Josh Allen, unambiguously. Undecided: the six teams between 4-4 and 5-3, which is most of the league.

One roster to flag: HasBas at 2-6. On points scored they are ninth; on optimal lineups across four weeks they are near the top of the league. A team that would be contending with league-average lineup decisions is the most likely seller to be selling the wrong thing. If they trade a starter in the next three weeks, the recap will say so.

Published 2026-10-13. The figures here are as they stood that day; the live pages recompute independently. All recaps